As if multiple setbacks in different parts of West Bengal during the
recently-concluded Lok Sabha election were not bad enough, the result of
the Darjeeling Lok Sabha seat has dealt a body-blow to Chief Minister
Mamata Banerjee’s plans to expand Trinamool Congress’ (TMC) electoral
footprint in the region. To make matters worse, Binoy Tamang, the
TMC-supported Independent candidate for the local Assembly bypoll who
has been central to her initiatives in the hills, also lost badly.
Together, these outcomes have the potential of realigning the state of politics there.
Was it that a silent majority — which had its share of discontent
over Mamata's aspirations to chart a new future for the hills — abetted
by sections of the local political leadership, serving as foot-soldiers,
awaiting an opportunity to speak? If so, it may have found a voice in
the recent elections, rewarding the BJP with resounding victories in
both Assembly bypoll and Lok Sabha election. The emotionally-charged
issue of Gorkha identity that has re-positioned itself in the foreground
of the collective political imagination seems to have outflanked
Mamata's attempts to seize the initiative in the hills on the back of an
agenda framed by the purported 'development' narrative.
The electoral outcome only underlines the potency of Gorkha identity
as a metaphor for self-empowerment in the region. It serves as a
reminder that the ethnically-powered sentiment which feeds it, had, by
no means, waned — and at best, only been silenced in the course of the
state administration's crackdown, following the 104-day agitation in the hills for a separate Gorkhaland state in 2017.
It was in the aftermath of the June-September 2017 unrest then that
Mamata sought to consolidate her grip over a deeply troubled region. If
her efforts and political manoeuvrings were then aimed at recasting the
local political storyline, the election results are now being perceived
as a possible game-changer with wider consequences.
True that the result of the Darjeeling Lok Sabha election was
determined largely by the voting pattern in the plains, which account
for four of the seven Assembly segments of the constituency. But how the
hills decide has always had a significant impact, notwithstanding the
hills-plains divide with its contrasting political sensitivities
particularly on the Gorkha identity issue.
An endorsement of the importance of the issue, which had propelled
the statehood demand over the years, came in the form of a second
rejection — this time of Mamata's acolyte, Binay Tamang, in the vote for
the Darjeeling Assembly bypoll, handing the BJP its maiden victory in
the seat. The message from the hills could not have been more
unequivocal.
But how far was the Lok Sabha contest in the hills actually one
between the BJP and the Trinamool Congress? The flags of the two parties
might have dominated the landscape in the course of the electioneering,
yet there can be little denying that the actual battle was fought
between allies of the two rival camps of the Gorkha Janmukti Morcha (GJM).
Ever since the split within the GJM in the aftermath of the 2017 statehood agitation, the party has become the site of a proxy war waged between the BJP leadership and Mamata with an eye to electoral supremacy in the hills.
It is indeed ironic that the political destinies of the two leaders
at the helm of these rival factions — both of whom claim to represent
the ‘official’ party are, to say the least — are overwrought. While
Bimal Gurung —whose camp is allied with the BJP — has been on the run
ever since a slew of charges was slapped against him in connection with
the violence during the 2017 stir, Tamang has had his political
credibility severely dented, having lost the contest for the Assembly
seat.
Tamang, who was anointed by Mamata in 2017 as chairperson of the
board of administrators of the Gorkhaland Territorial Administration
(GTA) propped up by her to run hills' affairs, had earlier resigned from
his administrative post. The very decision of him accepting the post
made him unpopular among his constituents, who perceived it as a
repudiation of the statehood cause. The recent polls were the first
popularity test for him in his new avatar. The consequences have been
devastating for one who had spoken of quitting politics in the event of a
defeat.
Till less than two years ago, the two leaders had stood side-by-side,
at the vanguard of the campaign for 'Gorkhaland'. Today, the fugitive
leader that he has been, Gurung remains steadfast on the statehood
demand. As for Tamang, it was not without a touch of sarcasm did he
wonder in the wake of his electoral defeat whether the BJP would now
grant statehood to the hills over the coming five years in power at the
Centre.
The local buzz is dominated by questions whether the decision of Amar
Singh Rai, the losing TMC nominee in the Darjeeling Lok Sabha seat, to
contest on that party’s ticket despite his primary allegiance to the GJM
has been irreparably costly. In contrast, Gurung’s faction of the GJM
steered clear from the fray, even though the ultimate winners in the Lok
Sabha and Darjeeling Assembly seats, both nominees of the BJP, might
arguably not have come up trumps without his support, albeit in
absentia.
While Raju Bista, a relative newcomer in local politics, was the
choice of the BJP mandarins for the Lok Sabha seat, Neeraj Zimba, who
won the Assembly bypoll on that party’s ticket, is a leader of the
Gorkha National Liberation Front (GNLF) — a regional political grouping
once courted by Mamata. It should be noted that the GNLF was the
forerunner of the GJM in the campaign for a separate state, having lit
the first fuse in the mid-1980s.
The hill’s mandate might have been decisive but that does not make
the political future of the region any less uncertain, particularly as
doubts persist over how well grounded the BJP national leadership might
be in the region’s political intricacies.
The party’s assurance in its election manifesto of a “permanent political solution” to outstanding local problems has its share of sceptics. And, in defeat, Mamata might be ruing not having given adequate and timely credence to the identity issue, leaving it till what turned out to be disastrously too late in her electioneering.
https://www.firstpost.com
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